Morning Note: Toppy Phenomena

Asian equities traded mostly higher overnight, with 10 of the 16 markets we track closing in the green. Europe’s doing well as well, with 13 of the 19 bourses we track up as I type. U.S. major averages are reflecting newfound optimism that a stimulus deal will happen by the end of the day (decent [but not guaranteed] bet I suspect): Dow up 206 points (0.73%), S&P 500 up 0.70%, Nasdaq up 0.42%, Russell 2000 up 0.26%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is up 0.14%. VXN (Nasdaq vol) is down -0.77%.

Oil futures are down -0.73%, gold’s up 0.50%, silver’s up 2.21%, copper futures are up 2.12% and the ag complex is down -0.24%.

The 10-year treasury is lower (yield higher) and the dollar is accommodatingly off -0.49%.

Led by banks, silver, Eurozone equities and base metal commodities, our core portfolio is up 0.69% so far this morning. Ag commodities, the yen and Verizon are drags.

I’ll leave you this morning with this cautionary note from my latest musings in our internal log:

“Short-term forecasting is exceedingly difficult as securities markets rest at historically-high valuations amid exceeding weak fundamentals, while, via government and central bank intervention, there’s ample liquidity to push prices higher on headlines. I.e., presently, liquidity and momentum rule, fundamentals simply do not matter… Historically-speaking, that’s very toppy phenomena…”

Have a great day!


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