So there I was last night, minding my own business (pondering how certain laws of physics make good metaphor for markets, literally), when my peripheral vision catches this on the screen to my left:
S&P 500 Futures:
Then the headline: “White House adviser says China Trade deal is over!”
Then, of course, within 30 minutes, the I-didn’t-mean-it retraction, then the chorus of retractions from the likes of L. Kudlow and the President himself (“trade deal fully intact”).
I.e., Move along folks, nothing to see here…
Of course I could produce identical charts as those above for virtually every global equity market last evening. As it turned out all but 3 (New Zealand, Indonesia and Malaysia) of the Asian equity markets we track closed nicely in the green, while every single European bourse we follow is trading higher this morning. U.S. stocks are building on last night’s bounce off of, call it the Navarro low; Dow’s up 200 points, with essentially the same %-wise for the other major averages.
The VIX (SP500 volatility) is down 2.3% at a still dangerous 31. Volatility measures for most other asset classes (save for the Euro, gold and silver) are notably lower this morning as well.
Oil, gold, silver and copper are all up this morning, aided by a dollar that’s showing some real weakness as I type (that’s bullish for stocks, at the moment, as well). Treasuries are trading lower (yields higher).
Unlike yesterday’s, this morning’s rally is showing some nice breadth; our core mix is currently capturing roughly 75% of the S&P’s move as I type (with hugely less risk, mind you).
I’ll close with a reminder, taken from a quote from last evening’s message:
“What we are observing is not “recovery,” it’s the impact of a government program that is paying the salaries of employees that are kept on payroll, whether they are actually working or not.”
Yesterday the President said the next round of stimulus checks are going to be “very generous.”