Quick Note on This Morning’s Action

Equities rallying this morning, SPX +2%… Today ended a 3-Monday streak of limit-down futures. That, in and of itself, might encourage a few buyers. Could be that sellers are waiting to be sure qtr-end rebalancing’s through. 

Could also be some optimism over the first sign of COVID-data trend improvement in the U.S..

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And of course given the huge ramp up in short interest the past few weeks, more shorts are being forced to cover right here, adding fuel to this morning’s up move. Click here if you missed last week’s 6-minute video on the topic…

Thus far, there’s literally nothing about this rally (big up week last week) that isn’t classic bear market action. 

As the present upswing reaches its end (could be minutes, days or weeks from here), we’ll likely see a swift selloff to the recent lows. Then, after a bit of consolidation and/or another sharp rally, equities will sell off to a level where they’ll establish a new low, from where the next strong bear market rally will ensue…

All that said, nothing in markets is ever carved in stone, so we’ll continue to keep an open mind and keep close tabs on the data. I.e., believe it or not, our task is to play the worst of devil’s advocates when it comes to our own theses: I.e., we’re forever trying to prove ourselves wrong. Boy, in this case we’d be more than happy to!

When I say “classic bear market action”, alas, the below is what I’m talking about. Ask yourself if you can presently relate to the blue text, or if this is your impression of what others are presently thinking:

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