As we stress herein ad nauseam, in our view the key to long-term investment success is to allocate in accordance with general conditions. Therefore, the majority of our research time is spent assessing the present state of macro affairs.
Being that consumer spending accounts for 2/3rds of the U.S. economy, we are keenly interested in the fiscal health of the American spender.
Per the first chart below, folks are keeping their debt levels (compared to available credit) at healthy/safe levels. And per the second, the number of consumers currently under financial stress (those in foreclosure, bankruptcy or under collection) looks good (not scary) as well:
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
I.e., nothing here that suggests there’s a looming peak in consumer spending.