Small businesses employ 2/3rds of the U.S. workforce. Hence, the monthly NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is one of the 79 inputs to our macro model.
Here’s this morning’s release: click to enlarge…
Here’s our chart (red shaded areas are recessions): click to enlarge…
The PWA Index this week scored a +69.62, with 73% of inputs positive, 4% negative and 23% neutral. Present odds of recession (generally what you need for a true bear market in stocks) are very low.
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