Sharing the latest entry to our log:
8/7/18
(Tuesday)
(Tuesday)
The
market continues to hold up remarkably well given the trade war threat, which I
attribute 100% to favorable general conditions, as there’s absolutely nothing
bullish in the prevailing rhetoric.
My “remarkably well” comment notwithstanding, given
the hugely strong setup coming into the year, the exceedingly positive Q1
earnings results, and I’ll say notably
positive Q2 results, tax cuts, etc., the fact that the broad market isn’t up
considerably more speaks to the ill-effects/uncertainty of protectionism.
market continues to hold up remarkably well given the trade war threat, which I
attribute 100% to favorable general conditions, as there’s absolutely nothing
bullish in the prevailing rhetoric.
My “remarkably well” comment notwithstanding, given
the hugely strong setup coming into the year, the exceedingly positive Q1
earnings results, and I’ll say notably
positive Q2 results, tax cuts, etc., the fact that the broad market isn’t up
considerably more speaks to the ill-effects/uncertainty of protectionism.
Under
the surface I’m seeing some cracks beginning to form: For example, copper’s
been getting killed lately, the staples/discretionary ratio has turned
decidedly in favor of staples, the Bespoke Consumer Pulse report, while not in
panic mode, shows a consumer whose confidence is beginning to wane, and the
PMIs are screaming tariff/inflation risk.
the surface I’m seeing some cracks beginning to form: For example, copper’s
been getting killed lately, the staples/discretionary ratio has turned
decidedly in favor of staples, the Bespoke Consumer Pulse report, while not in
panic mode, shows a consumer whose confidence is beginning to wane, and the
PMIs are screaming tariff/inflation risk.
Trump
said last week that he’s doing this because the market is allowing it; i.e.,
it hasn’t fallen apart in the face of his tariffs (imposed and threatened), allowing him to push the needle. It’s clear to me that
when the market ultimately tanks, he’ll abruptly change course. The question
remains, will general conditions at that time support a resumption of the bull
market or will the train have already left the station? I.e., will probabilities
favor continued expansion or will general conditions have rolled over
to the point where the odds favor recession?
said last week that he’s doing this because the market is allowing it; i.e.,
it hasn’t fallen apart in the face of his tariffs (imposed and threatened), allowing him to push the needle. It’s clear to me that
when the market ultimately tanks, he’ll abruptly change course. The question
remains, will general conditions at that time support a resumption of the bull
market or will the train have already left the station? I.e., will probabilities
favor continued expansion or will general conditions have rolled over
to the point where the odds favor recession?
For
the moment, conditions favor the former, and, therefore, demand – as long as bullish macro conditions persist
– that we remain mostly cyclical in our equity mix and essentially ignore what
is certain to be a heightened degree of volatility as trade disputes play out
and as mid-terms approach, while remaining open minded and flexible along the
way.
the moment, conditions favor the former, and, therefore, demand – as long as bullish macro conditions persist
– that we remain mostly cyclical in our equity mix and essentially ignore what
is certain to be a heightened degree of volatility as trade disputes play out
and as mid-terms approach, while remaining open minded and flexible along the
way.