So why do we continue to pound on the trade topic while stock traders seem to remain sanguine? Well, if you missed it, please view this week’s video and you’ll understand why we believe that focusing primarily on underlying conditions (which include underlying market technicals, as well as the macro environment) is the most prudent way to approach the business of investing.
As I illustrated in the video, while the S&P 500 has moved higher since January, our macro index score has moved notably lower. This tells us that, while even today’s score is historically bullish (which indeed justifies traders’ bullish actions [and our presently staying the course]), conditions have deteriorated over the course of 2018. I also mentioned that in our view it’s largely the deteriorating trade environment that explains the deterioration in macro conditions.
The results of CNBC’s latest Global CFO Survey, conducted before the latest round of tariffs was announced, speaks to our concern:
click graphs to enlarge…
