As long-time readers know, in addition to the data we track within our proprietary index, I maintain a “monthly trends” file where I simply copy and paste data and news articles that speak to the present state of global general conditions. 

For this week’s message I’m thinking I’ll share with you the titles to each of January’s entries, and close with my synopsis of the underlying message.


Here you go, beginning with the most recent:   click anywhere on the list to enlarge





I can sum up the character of January’s data with one word: “mixed”.


As all of this relates to stocks, given what’s inspiring market moves these days, “mixed” is good. 


“Mixed” keeps the world’s major central banks at bay, which of course bulls like love — as low interest rates and ample liquidity is the stuff stocks feed on. And, more important in the long-term scheme of things, “mixed” is frightening for policy makers — as “mixed” can be construed as indecisive, and politicians know that indecisive at some point becomes decisive. And what’s it going to be, decisively better or decisively worse? 


With regard to the latter, the blame of a decisively worse scenario at this juncture will land directly in the laps of the world’s uprising populist-minded (left or right) politicians — and rightfully so! And of course politicians, be they populists or otherwise, are first and foremost politicians. Policies (U.S/China trade war, hard Brexit, threatened tax hikes and tightened regulations, etc.) that can be fingered for bringing on a global recession before its time will spell utter destruction for the political careers of their authors. And, make no mistake, they know it!


Have a nice weekend!
Marty