My conversation with my wife Judy one morning last week (she’s recovering from knee surgery):

M: Hey Honey, how was your physical therapy this morning?


J: Good, it was my 10th session and I’m pretty much right on schedule? The therapist said I can try working out, but to go easy and stop if it starts hurting. How you doing Honey?


M: Pretty good (sigh),…. the market’s getting interesting.


J: How so?


M: Well, it just keeps melting up, when, really, it could use a breather.


J: What do you mean?


M: It’s like your knee: Imagine you’re a runner and your knee’s starting to flare up every now and then. Problem is, everybody’s betting (literally) that you’re going to keep winning races. So every time you’re feeling a little pain there’s a doctor with a needle who immediately injects a painkiller right on the spot; the knee instantly feels good and you speed right back up. As long as the doctor remains poised to pop in with a shot whenever your knee’s bugging you, everybody’s more than willing to keep betting that you’re going to keep winning. 


Of course you know what’s going to happen; eventually that knee’s going to buckle right when you least expect it (because the painkiller has numbed the signals to your brain), and you’ll end up in the hospital in need of major surgery. Then it’ll be several months, at least, before you’ll be anywhere near running races again. And all those people betting on your continued success as a runner are going to lose their butts, big time!


J: So, the Fed?   (yep, my wife, being my most willing sounding board [poor thing], knows her stuff)


M: You got it. We had a decent down day yesterday, was seeing some follow through today, and in comes a Fed governor vowing that the team is poised to ease like it’s 2008, even before the economy starts showing serious cracks. The stock market has them literally scared out of their minds! Nobody wants to feel any pain, even when it’s exactly what’s needed to shake some sense into those who are perpetuating what* — as it stands now — could ultimately bring this thing crashing down.


J: Dang Honey!


M: It’s okay Baby, we just need to get our clients properly hedged while the runner’s still running…


*The “what” being the utter disruption of trade arrangements and global supply chains via the new U.S./China tariff regime, and the threat of the same in the near future with our other established trading partners. 

P.s. As an afterthought, I didn’t mention that the doctor happens to be running a bit low on painkillers these days (hasn’t sufficiently restocked after 2008)…