While perusing one of history’s best reads on human nature this evening I came across the following which had me thinking about tonight’s 60-minute interview with Fed Chair J. Powell, and the futures market’s reaction:

emphasis mine…

“It is happy for man that he does not know what the morrow is to bring forth; but, unaware of this great blessing, he has, in all ages of the world, presumptuously endeavoured to trace the events of unborn centuries, and anticipate the march of time. He has reduced this presumption into a study. He has divided it into sciences and systems without number, employing his whole life in the vain pursuit.

Upon no subject has it been so easy to deceive the world as upon this. In every breast the curiosity exists in a greater or less degree, and can only be conquered by a long course of self-examination, and a firm reliance that the future would not be hidden from our sight, if it were right that we should be acquainted with it.”

— Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

Mackay’s utterly timeless book, by the way, was written in 1841…


S&P 500 futures are screaming higher this evening as traders have divined Powell’s words as assuring a bright future for the equity market. 


Note: Per my earlier post, S&P 500 futures are where there remains a huge net short interest. I presume the bull’s reaction to Powell’s interview leaves the short sellers, yet again, rushing to cover those bearish bets and thus adding serious fuel to this evening’s rally…


Lastly, while one might construe the abundance of research we do as our attempt to know the future, trust me, we have no such delusions. Our efforts are for the sole purpose of assessing conditions from a risk/reward perspective; that’s what guides our portfolio decisions at all times..