Whether the positive market action this morning implies sudden sanguineness around the new variant, or comports with our view that — change of tone aside — the Fed has backed itself into a corner that really doesn’t allow it to come out swinging on inflation, or the fact that on average Decembers are very good (simple seasonality), this morning’s bounce in equities makes some sense.
Whether or not it holds of course, against sharply rising yields (tech stocks would be your worry here), remains to be seen.
The very short-term SP500 price action looks relatively constructive (the signals in panels 2 and 3 [relative to the shape of the price action] of the first two charts)…
Here are those 60 and 120 minute charts we often explore on our technical videos:
With regard to the daily chart, however, while bouncing back above the 50-day moving average (red line) this morning is a positive, the S&P really needs to break above that down trend line (the past few days of lower highs and lower lows action). And that “engulfing candle” (furthest to the right in that second red rectangle) — not a good look at the top of a trend — really needs to get taken out.
“To put the question in general terms would be comparable to the question posed to a chess champion: “Tell me, Master, what is the best move in the world?” There simply is no such thing as the best or even a good move apart from a particular situation in a game…”
True in life (the meaning of which is what Frankl discusses in this quote), in chess, and so true in investing!
Have a great day!
Marty