This morning’s jobs report was odd, to put it mildly!
The headline number (+210k) missed expectations by over 300k. However, the separate household survey says the economy added a whopping 1.13 million! The average workweek rose, the unemployment rate declined (to 4.2%), labor force participation and the employment to population ratio both improved, and wages are up 4.8% from a year ago. I’m guessing that confused seasonal adjustments explain the divergent headline number…
On balance, it was a strong report, and, as it’s being digested (as I type) tech stocks have moved from green to red… Remember, they’re notably interest rate sensitive right here…
Lots more coming your way over the weekend: Our macro and technical updates, and a look at the latest results of our newest (in the testing phase, actually) indicator we call our Equity Market Conditions Index. Note that the latter scored a positive 33 back in August, but rolled over to a negative 16 on November 21st.
Here’s the move in the SP500 since November 21st (and, please, don’t think for a moment that I’m suggesting we’ve discovered a serious market-timing indicator. I promise, unequivocally, we haven’t!! This will just be another tool to help us assess overall market conditions):
““The farther backward you look, the farther forward you are likely to see,” Winston Churchill once said. The challenge is to look at the future not along a straight line, but around the inevitable corners. To know how to do that, you have to practice looking at how the past has turned corners.”
–Strauss, William; Howe, Neil. The Fourth Turning
Have a great day!
Marty