Folks owning gold and/or silver going into yesterday look like geniuses today. Their careful analysis of trends in global currencies, industrial demand (silver), and seasonal factors in countries like India, inspired them to buy those metals and reap some very nice one-day gains. Well, not—in terms of their prowess—exactly. Metals were trading decidedly lower right up to the moment Bernanke stunned the markets with his no-taper-yet announcement. Had the Fed delivered on the widely anticipated $10 billion cut in monthly bond purchases, aka QE3, I suspect we’d have seen metals prices remain near the session’s lows. Had they gone deeper than $10 billion, today’s geniuses would’ve surely felt like goats.

Truly, your investment thesis cannot revolve around the vagaries of appointed officials, nor the politicians who appoint them.

And, speaking of politicians, there’s no doubt that many a speculator will speculate a few dollars on the political battle to come. If they believe the Republicans will dig in their heels to the point where traders lose sight of the political risk (which virtually assures an 11th hour kicking of the can [once again]) in doing so, they’ll go long metals and short (betting on the fall) stocks. If the parties make nice before the 11th hour, uh oh!!

So what’s my point? Same as always: Expect short-term volatility as traders place their bets, and remain long-term—and very diversified—with your equity exposure. Market timing—whether we’re talking metals or stocks—is a very dangerous undertaking…