“… while the party in power’s platform may on the surface appear to be everything investors would typically reject, make no mistake, at the end of the day, it will do what it can to keep its nation’s markets afloat, and indeed competitive, on the global stage.”
Ideological ramifications aside, I can assure you, Xi has no interest in crashing China’s economy… The question at this juncture is simply one of pressing need, or priority.
The fact that US equities didn’t flinch in the face of China’s epic selloff yesterday suggests that the world agrees that Xi is not out to shoot off China’s nose to spite the West’s face, and it is simply uncertain about the when and the wherefore around zero-Covid, fiscal stimulus, etc. Or, for the moment, the short-term setup for US equities is simply too strong to ignore… Or maybe both??
As for that short-term US equity setup; seasonality right here is a given, and, per recent video commentaries, the technicals are turning notably constructive…
Here’s a cleaned-up 1-year daily SP500 chart:
Asian equities struggled overnight, with 10 of the 16 markets we track closing lower.
Europe’s mostly green so far this morning, with 13 of the 19 bourses we follow trading up as I type.
US major averages (save for the Dow) are up to start the session: Dow down 31 points (0.10%), SP500 up 0.28%, SP500 Equal Weight up 0.35%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.61%, Nasdaq Comp up 0.60%, Russell 2000 up 0.83%.
The VIX sits at 29.75, down 0.34%.
Oil futures are up 0.31%, gold’s up 0.39%, silver’s up 0.27%, copper futures are down 0.89% and the ag complex (DBA) is down 0.30%
The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar (coming way off its premarket high) is down 0.69%
Among our 34 core positions (excluding options hedges, cash and short-term bond ETF), 22 — led by AMD, long-term treasuries, Nokia, Sweden equities and Albemarle — are in the green so far this morning. The losers are being led lower by Brazil equities, base metals miners, military defense stocks, energy stocks and base metals futures.
“If you don’t overthink, you feel better…”