While our overall economic assessment continues to not signal looming recession — this morning’s jobless claims number (lowest since 1968) supports that notion — the action among equity sectors is nevertheless raising a bit of a red flag.
Let’s take a look at the majors relative to the S&P 500 (above 100 denotes 30-day outperformance over the index, below denotes underperformance):
Tech 99.9:
Asian equities sold off again overnight, with all but 1 of the 16 markets we track closing lower.
Europe’s actually green this morning, with 15 of the 19 bourses we follow trading higher as I type.
US stocks are lower to start the session: Dow down 128 points (0.37%), SP500 down 0.07%, SP500 Equal Weight down 0.19%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.01%, Nasdaq Comp down 0.06%, Russell 2000 down 0.12%.
The VIX sits at 22.21, up 0.50%.
Oil futures up 1.60%, gold’s up 0.28%, silver’s down 0.27%, copper futures are down 0.76% and the ag complex (DBA) is down 0.07%.
The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is down 0.10%.
Among our 37 core positions (excluding cash and short-term bond ETF), 20 — led by uranium miners, MP Materials, carbon credits, Sweden equities and oil services companies — are in the green so far this morning. The losers are being led lower by Paramount Global, Verizon, base metals futures, AT&T and emerging market equities.
In other words:
“So much of what causes heartache is wanting things to be different than they are.”
–The Book of Joy
Have a great day!
Marty