Morning Note: Taper Talk Tomorrow — And — A Key To ‘Long-Term’ Investment Success

Tomorrow is setting up to be an interesting day for markets. Fed Chair J. Powell gives his keynote speech in Jackson Hole; a speech that was, at one point, clearly meant to confirm that indeed taper (cutting a bit back on monthly bond purchase) was coming, and to offer up the timeline. 

Thing is, during the time between the recent lining up of Fed board members to each give their public nods to taper and today, the delta variant has reared its very ugly head — seeding doubt around Powell sounding the alarm come tomorrow. 

The latter has made for a decline in the dollar and a rise in equites and commodities — up until this morning, that is, when two non-voting members stated, “no”, the delta variant should in no way delay plans to ease back on the “accommodation.”

This morning’s data releases (jobless claims and Q2 GDP) came in close enough to the mark to not further muddy Jackson Hole’s waters, so to speak.

Asian equities struggled overnight, with 9 of the 16 markets we track closing lower.

Europe’s red nearly across the board so far this morning, with 16 of the 19 bourses we follow trading down as I type.

U.S. stocks are mixed to start the day. Dow up 42 points (0.12%), SP500 sown 0.12%, SP500 Equal Weight down 0.20%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.17%, Nasdaq Comp down 0.03%, Russell 2000 down 0.05%.

Oil futures are down 1.85%, gold’s down 0.24%, silver’s down 0.83%, copper futures are down 0.08% and the ag complex is down 0.21%.

The 10-year treasury is down (yield up) and the dollar is up 0.22%.

Led by KRBN (carbon credits), MP (rare earth miner), solar stocks, Nokia and AMD — but dragged by Latin American equities, wind stocks, silver, emerging market equities and consumer staples stocks — our core mix is off 0.14% to start the session.

“To forgo short-term gratification for greater rewards in the future is generally consistent with higher intelligence.”  –Alan Greenspan

Well, I don’t know about the “higher intelligence” part, but I can say with confidence that forgoing short-term gratification (read impulsiveness in this context) is key to long-term investment success…

Have a great day!

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