You’ve heard me make the point over and over again (as recently as this weekend’s video) that the Fed simply can’t let the stock market go (not suggesting they’ll succeed indefinitely), as our economy is essentially levered to its continued rise.
Julian Brigden (tops my shortlist of the world’s greatest macro minds) agrees, and points to the positive correlation between the U.S. stock market and U.S. employment.
“I’m afraid this is one reason the last two tightening cycles have failed. Essentially, the minute the equity market stops rising, you can start the stopwatch on the next recession.”