Morning Note: It’s the materials, but it’s becoming the sentiment as well (in housing)…

Housing data (starts and permits) were out this morning, painting a mixed picture. Starts exceeded expectations by 53k, although May was revised down by 26k. Single family accounted for 1.13 million of the 1.643 million total.

Permits, on the other hand, missed (but nothing too scary), coming in at their lowest since last August.

Here’s economist Peter Boockvar’s take:

“I can only guess that the difficulty in getting materials, appliances even and labor along with the growing problem of properly pricing a home where a contract is signed before all the materials are procured are the reasons.” 

Well, sure, no doubt materials and labor constraints are taking a toll, but I’m thinking disappointing permit numbers has at least as much to do with the following:

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Good-Time-To-Buy-A-House? Question:

H/T Julian Brigden

Stocks have been all over the place so far this morning, SP500’s at session highs (although the day’s very young) as I type (Nasdaq’s lagging a bit). One thing’s for certain, it’s going to be one volatile summer for asset markets!

Yesterday’s video commentary was an important one, click here if you missed it.

Asian equities closed lower nearly across the board last night, with all but 1 of the 16 markets we track in the red.

Europe’s catching a bit of a bid this morning, with 14 of the 19 bourses we follow in the green thus far.

US major averages are on the rebound to start the session: Dow up 413 points (1.22%), SP500 +0.89%, SP500 Equal Weight up 1.36%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.22%, Nasdaq Comp up 0.42%, Russell 2000 up 1.79%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is down 7.42%. VXN (Nasdaq 100 i.v.) is down 3.11%.

Oil futures are down 0.32%, gold’s up 0.51%, silver’s down 0.17%, copper futures are up 0.87% and the ag complex is up 1.60%.

The 10-year treasury is up (yield down) and the dollar is up 0.20%).

Led by ALB (lithium miner), bank stocks, metals miners, PHO (water) and industrial stocks — but dragged by KRBN (carbon credits), emerging market equities, FAN (wind stocks), MP (rare earth miner) and silver — our core portfolio is up 0.61% as I type. 

“The reward of the historian is to locate patterns that recur over time and to discover the natural rhythms of social experience.”  The Fourth Turning, Strauss and Howe

Have a great day!

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