While it’s way premature to call an end to the recent housing “boom”, the latest action in lumber and housing sentiment is getting interesting.
Here’s from our weekly futures traders’ positioning analysis:
Lumber: Net short for the first time since 6/2020. Speaks to the prohibitively high price level of late and the consequent halting/delaying of new construction projects.
May also reflect what appears to be a growing pessimism (among potential buyers) around housing going forward.
Home-Builder Sentiment (white) vs Univ of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey results for “good time to buy a house?” question (blue):
Chart source: Julian Brigden
And here’s the latest price action in lumber futures: