Morning Note: “One Major Problem In Investing”

Asian stocks took a breather last night from what’s been an impressive rally of late; 12 of the 16 markets we track closed in the red. Europe’s giving some back this morning as well, with 14 of the 19 bourses we follow trading lower. U.S. major averages, save for the Nasdaq, are not feeling it either: Dow down 149 points (0.51%), S&P 500 down 0.30%, Nasdaq up 0.27%, Russell 2000 down 0.55%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is up 2.13%. VXN (Nasdaq vol) is up 0.99%.

Oil futures are up 1.33%, gold’s up 0.79%, silver’s up 0.49%, copper futures are up 0.81% and the ag complex is up 0.07%.

The 10-year treasury is rallying (yields falling) and the dollar is off 0.14%.

While gold, base metals, emerging market equities, tech and the yen are in the green this morning, selling among the rest of our positions has our core portfolio off by 0.27% as I type.

Here’s Leon Levy helping us understand how so many “experts” can see things so differently when it comes to markets. 

I totally sympathize with the last sentence (and the first, for that matter), but I also want to be cognizant of the thickness of the ice in the meantime:

“One major problem in investing is how long it takes for things to happen. All specialists have a time frame that they believe is important—the astrophysicist who thinks in terms of billions of years can’t put himself in the mind of the meteorologist who thinks about the future in terms of hours and days. Both will be befuddled by the archaeologist whose time scale spans less than that of the astrophysicist but more than the meteorologist. The outer edge of the time horizon for Wall Street analysts today might be a year. These differences may account for the way people on Wall Street so often talk past each other. I will say, “Consolidated Chicken Feed is a great stock,” and a colleague will ask, “Will it have losses the next quarter?” But I don’t care about the next quarter—I’m looking at strategic and demographic factors that will favor the industry and this company over the next few years, and sometimes the next decade.”

Have a great day!


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