Morning Note: A Wiley Sort of Market???

If you’re looking for something pithy and provocative on the election this morning, well, you won’t find it here. And if you’re baffled by this morning’s 580-point Dow rally, I hear ya. That said, if all I knew at the moment was that the dollar was down 0.74% (that’s big), I’d say, given the present setup, and where the dollar — and stocks — have been of late, a big stock market rally today is a no brainer. 

Could it be that “the market” is already looking past the election? Perhaps, but a 35 VIX (pricing of volatility in SP500 options) says that traders, despite this week’s rally, are hugely on edge. Let’s hope it’s not a Wile E. Coyote sort of edge, if you know what I mean.

Asian stocks had a big night, with all but 1 of the 16 markets we track closing notably in the green. On top of impressive PMI’s (mentioned in yesterday’s note), I suspect that the Australian Central Bank cutting rates and upping the money printing overnight — and literally acknowledging that their doing it to boost asset prices (oh, how central bankers ignore history 😒) — had something to do with it as well.

European markets are screaming higher literally across the board this morning: We can talk again about yesterday’s PMIs, and/or we can talk about a bounce from hugely oversold levels after last week’s drubbing. 

U.S. major averages are having quite the morning so far: Dow up 583 points (2.16%), S&P 500 up 1.96%, Nasdaq up 1.86%, Russell 2000 up 1.67%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is down 6.38%. VXN (Nasdaq vol) is down 4.32%.

Oil futures are up 3.04%, gold’s up 0.43%, silver’s up 0.40%, copper futures are up 0.92% and the ag complex is up 0.40%.

The 10-year treasury is getting slammed (yield rising big) and the dollar’s getting hammered, -0.77% as I type.

Boosted by big moves in Eurozone equities, financials, industrials, banks and Asia-Pac stocks, but, while zero positions are in the red, muted a bit by modest gains in commodities, our core portfolio is up a still very nice 1.15% so far this morning. 

The wise former Supreme Court Justice (from 1916 to 1929) Louis Brandeis offered us something “most important” to ponder:

“The most important office, and the one which all of us can and should fill, is that of private citizen.”

Have a great day!

Marty

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