Morning Note: The Question of the Day

Despite heightened trade tensions between China and the US, as well as border tension between China and India, all but 3 (one being India) of the Asian markets we track closed in the green overnight. Europe, on the other hand, is having a very rough day; all 19 of the bourses we track are trading lower as I type. As is the U.S. so far: Dow down 418 points (-1.49%), S&P 500 down -1.65%, Nasdaq down -2.17%, Russell 2000 down -1.86%.

The VIX (SP500 implied volatility) is appropriately higher this morning, up 6.34%. VXN (Nasdaq vol) is as well, up 3.14%.

Oil futures are getting creamed, -8.42%, Gold’s off -0.4`%, silver’s down -1.64%, copper futures are down -1.575 and the ag complex is down -1.05%.

The 10-year treasury is rallying (yield lower), as is the dollar +0.61%. 

While looking better than global equities so far this morning, our core allocation is nevertheless down 0.97%. Leading the winners, and our only position in the green this morning, is the yen, followed by marginal losers gold, Asia-Pac equities, Verizon, utilities and ag commodities. The biggest losers would be banks, energy, tech, financials and base metals.

The question on everyone’s mind this morning is of course, is this the beginning of something big to the downside? Well, as I’ve illustrated herein the past few days, much of what had in our view been keeping equities loftily afloat has abated of late. Which only means the market was, let’s say, ripe for a pullback; be it a 3-day correction or something more pernicious.

Thus, there’s no answering the question on everyone’s mind amid a mere 3-day setback. 

Now, if you were to ask me if the risk of a major pullback is elevated right here, I’d say sure it is. But a snap-back rally on a, well, you name it headline or two, is very much in the cards as well. Measuring the snap-backs (the volume, the breadth, the velocity, etc.) then becomes the exercise that’ll help us assess the odds from there.

Assessing overall general conditions, on other hand, has us already cautious…

Have a great day!

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