Morning Note: A Lot Has To Go Right

Asian equities traded mostly higher overnight, with 13 of the 16 markets we track closing in the green. No such luck, however, for Europe this morning; only 4 of the 19 indices we track trading higher. U.S. stocks are mixed as I type: Dow down 31 points (-0.11%), S&P 500 up 0.07%, Nasdaq up 0.47%, Russell 2000 up 0.24%.

The VIX (SP500 volatility) is down 2.15% to 21.80, VXN (Nasdaq vol) is down 1.06% to 29.83. 

Oil and gold futures are flat, silver’s are up 3.3%, copper’s down 1.69% and the ag complex is nicely green so far this morning.

The 10-year treasury is trading lower (yield higher) and the dollar is selling off to the tune of 0.47%.

Our core portfolio is in the green by 0.27% to start the day. Silver, gold, ag commodities, tech and industrials are contributing to this morning’s early gains. 

Clients and regular readers know we continue to have our concerns about the present state of macro and market affairs.

With regard to the equity markets, we’ve frequently illustrated the historically-high perch the market presently rests on in terms of valuation. Macro Charts posted the following chart on its twitter feed this morning:

Yet another valuation metric flashing a historically-high reading. Like the tweet says, a LOT has to go right to justify present levels. History offers little solace…
With regard to macro conditions, weekly jobless claims came in this morning “better than expected”. That is, the number of folks filing first-time unemployment claims — a number that shatters the pre-COVID high record — happened to be 963,000. While some on Wall Street are couching that as a positive this morning, I just can’t bring myself to do it…
Stay tuned, and stay hedged…
Have a great day!


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