Asian equities, having closed before the firework show in the West got underway, actually saw a little green overnight, with 6 of the 16 markets we track trading higher. Europe, on the other hand, being wide awake this morning is seeing nothing but red, with all of the 19 bourses on our radar down, by a bunch. Same for the U.S., with the Dow down 520 points (-2%), the S&P 500 off 1.5%, the Nasdaq lower by 1.1% and the Russell 2000 down 1.7%.
The VIX (SP500 volatility) is screaming higher of course this morning, +13% to 27.31, VXN (Nasdaq volatility) is up 7%, at 32.26.
Oil’s down huge, 4%, gold’s off $10, silver’s getting hammered, down 3.9%, copper’s off 1% and the ag complex is split roughly down the middle.
As you’d expect, the 10-year treasury yield is falling this morning (price rising), while the dollar’s flat.
Our core portfolio is feeling the pain as well this morning, down 1.3% as I type. The only core component trading higher is DBA (ag commodities), and that’s only by .2%. Of course the put hedges are working nicely, at the moment up 22%.
There’s just no sugar-coating this morning’s data; the first Q2 GDP reading is like nothing we’ve seen since the 1940s, down 32.9% annualized. Jobless claims increased for the second week in a row to 1.43 million, while 17 million folks filed for ongoing benefits, up 867 from the prior week.
Sure, stocks are trading lower this morning, but when you match up current levels and macro reality, well, stocks — historically-speaking — appear to be punching way above their weight. Good thing, at least for the moment (at least for short-term traders), that there’s no steroid (Fed injections, etc.) testing in this particular contest. Of course the natural market athlete (you and me) fears the longer-term side effects of entering the ring all juiced up, while, not to mention, wearing no headgear.