Trading Setups

A good friend of mine asked for my thoughts the other day on telemedicine as an investment. He also recently inquired about Disney. I thought my reply may be instructive in terms of trading setups right here as well; in case you’re thinking about it:

“Had a big run-up to about mid-April (teladoc stock being the proxy)… down about 20% since then…., then rallying again currently…

The thing about the corona-specific stocks is that they’re hard to grab before they pop, as the insiders have a huge edge before the rest of us… The opportunity lies in the sustainability after it’s all over…. timing has to do with how much of that sustainability is already priced in.. Meaning, if teladoc, for example, is bid so high that the price reflects nothing but growing earnings till the cows come home, but then when the coast is clear 50% of the docs using it go back to seeing 50% of their patients in person, the stock will get creamed… that’s when you buy it…

Patience, virtually across the board, is necessary right here… Disney, for example, has seen a nice runup on the prospects for opening back up. But when you think about what opening back up looks like, social distancing, etc., the odds of them not losing money from the get-go are slim… Now if the reopening continues and the virus is figured out, then it begins to make some sense… But then we have to deal with the effects of a deep recession on the consumer and, after the initial rush, their willingness to spend a bunch of money… Of course Disney is much more than just the parks… Streaming, NBA, etc., could be big!… That said, the stock market hasn’t even begun reflecting the depths of the current recession… The Fed is hellbent on keeping that from happening, so we’ll see, but the risk is huge right here… If the stock market does what it ultimately should, very few will be spared… That, if it plays out, will be when we’ll be grabbing great companies on the cheap…”

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