Evening Note: In the End, Macro Always Matters — Plus Our Foreign Macro Update

Analyst Julien Bittel points out essentially the case we started making late last summer when our proprietary macro index rolled into the red (as it did [on a back-tested basis] prior to the previous two recessions as well) and we began hedging portfolios.

Of course this is a case we continue to make…

Click to enlarge…

Speaking of “leading indicators”, just updated the scores for our non-US macro indices for the 22 countries we formally track, plus the Eurozone. While we can’t capture the breadth of data on foreign countries that we do in our PWA Macro Index, we are nevertheless able to gain what we view as meaningful/instructive perspectives on each by capturing key releases such as retail sales, consumer confidence, employment, manufacturing and services sector surveys, industrial production and inflation. 

Per the net scores below, the world economy is presently in a world of hurt:

Lastly, in case you’re curious, below from today’s post-market spreadsheet are the year-to-date returns for many of the world’s equity markets, as well as for the commodities complex. 

While, with only two exceptions, it’s a sea of red among our featured foreign indices, it’s a mixed bag in terms of the extent of the damage thus far. Suffice to say that our narrative (market’s have yet to discount fundamental reality) applies to much of the rest of the world as well:

YTD Results

US Equities: 
Dow -8.61%
SP500 -3.57%
SP500 EqWt -10.02%
Nasdaq +10.82%
Russ2k -14.47%

TSX Composite -9.28

European Equities: 
UK -17.48%
Germany -7.30%
France -17.05%
Russia -10.56%
Italy -17.10%
Greece -27.74%
Sweden -5.87
Switzerland -4.05
Finland -5.49
Euro Stoxx 600 -12.61
Netherlands -6.94
Belgium -13.70
Denmark +7.47
Hungary -18.65
Poland -16.48
Turkey -15.91
Ireland -17.25
Norway -21.03
Portugal -13.55

Asian Equities: 
Japan -4.97%
Shanghai -3.31%
Shenzhen +11.37%
Hang Seng -13.61%
Australia -12.33%
Korea -3.55%
Singapore -17.28%
New Zealand -2.50%
India -17.70%
Thailand -13.09%
Indonesia -21.82%
Malaysia -6.86%
Taiwan -5.47%
Vietnam -13.57
Philippines -19.64
Pakistan -28.40

Latin American Equities:

Argentina -12.56
Brazil -38.06
Chile -23.46
Colombia -39.80
Mexico -28.71
Peru -24.06

African/Middle Eastern Equities:
African Index -6.73
Egypt -20.14
Israel -6.73
Saudi Arabia -13.16

UAE -24.87

Qatar -8.71 

Commodity Futures:  
Oil WTI -36.39%
Oil Brent -37.90%
Nat gas -31.10%
Gold +13.62%
Silver -2.59%
Copper -5.94%
Platinum -16.25%
Palladium -1.62%


Wheat -14.33%
Corn -17.21%
Soybean -13.26%
Sugar -10.65%
OJ unch +20.78%
Coffee -28.76%
Cocoa -9.85%
Rough Rice +0.71%
Oats +2.65%
Milk +20.41%
Cotton -15.41%
Lumber -2.62%
Live Cattle -17.49%
Lean Hogs -39.28%


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