Morning Note

Weekly jobless claims came in at 4.4 million this morning and of course equity futures are trading higher in the pre-market session.

Ironically, a headline that crossed my screen just a few minutes before the jobless number was released pretty much explains how stocks continue to reflect a rate of earnings that is unfathomably detached from reality:

“Confidence in Fed Chair Hits Highest Point Since Greenspan Era”

By and large, folks really don’t understand capitalism, or, I guess, they really don’t understand that once again the Fed is bailing out failed enterprises (I’m referring to the heavily-leveraged ones that were doomed to failure during the next economic slump) at the ultimate expense of the very folks who believe they’re doing such a bangup job — i.e., the taxpayer. I suspect that that reality will begin to seep through in the months/years ahead.

This one just hit (I swear):

“Leon Cooperman says coronavirus will change capitalism forever, and that taxes will have to go up”

How timely!

Now this one:

“BOJ (Bank of Japan) to Discuss Unlimited Bond Buying, Nikkei Reports”

Signs of the times…

Asian equities traded mixed overnight. Europe’s higher across the board this morning. Commodities (ex-ag), save for nat gas, are rallying. The dollar’s down in Asian, up in Europe. The treasury curve is flattening this morning (short-end rates are up, 10 and 30-yrs are down).

So, the signal from bonds and gold (for example) continues to be ominous, yet the signal from equities is that things ain’t so bad.

Considering history, and which asset classes typically get it right, we remain cautious…


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