This Morning’s Log Entries


SPX, at the moment, has moved into the green after trading 1%+ lower early on. Per the pre-market note, traders are no doubt struggling with gaming what will be some of the worst data on record vs the largest stimulus efforts on record.

Performance by sector this morning highlights the uncertainty:

Energy, communications, and tech are the only sectors in the green (but tech is a fourth of the index). Everything else is bleeding red.

Here are Wall Street’s Q2 GDP estimates:

The notion that the stock market can hold up against such potential seems unrealistic… If it does it’ll be all about the belief that government intervention can save the day…


Futures are coming into the open moderately off, although trending higher as I type. Any remaining portfolio rebalancing would have to occur today. Futures traded in the green earlier on news that another US fiscal stimulus bill is already in the works. Odds favor a move to, at a minimum, the recent lows in the relatively near future; although bear market rallies can persist longer than one might expect, particularly when prospects for additional stimulus are high…


Japan -0.9%
Shanghai +0.1%
Shenzhen +0.5%
Hang Seng +1.85%
Australia -2.0%
Korea +2.2%
Singapore +2.7%
New Zealand -0.0%
India +3.8%
Thailand +3.5%
Indonesia +2.8%
Malaysia +1.7%
Taiwan +0.8%

This morning 6:06am:
UK +0.2%
Germany -0.4%
France -0.7%
Russia +1.5%
Italy +0.1

US Equity Futures (implied open):
Dow -1.0%
S&P -1.2%
Nasdaq -1.0%
VIX +1.4%

Commodity Futures:
Oil +3.7%
Nat gas +1.4%
Gold -1.3%
Silver +1.2%
Copper +1.7%
Platinum +1.4%

Currency Futures:
USD/CAD +0.5%
USD/MXN -0.3%
USD/BRL +0.0%
USD/ARS -0.2%
USD/CLP -0.4%
USD/JPY +0.6%
AUD/USD -0.3%
AUD/JPY -1.2%
EUR/USD -0.7%
EUR/GBP -0.5%
GBP/USD -0.2%
USD/CHF + 0.7%
JPY/EUR +0.1%
EUR/CHF -0.1%
EUR/AUD +0.4%
EUR/NZD -0.4%
USD/SEK +0.7%
USD/NOK -0.9%
USD/DKK +0.7%
USD/RUB -1.0%
US Treasury Yields:
1-mo +0.01%
3-mo -0.005%
6-mo +0.0%
1-yr -0.0%
2-yr +0.012%
3-yr +0.008%
5-yr +0.021%
7-yr +0.02%
10-yr +0.039%
30-yr +0.066%

Volatility Indices:
Gold 30.42 (prior day’s close)
Oil 174.22 (“)
VIX 56.52 -1.0%
VVIX 157.66 (“)
Treasury 9.39 -1.6%
MOVE 90.7 (“)
DOW 59.72 (“)
Nasdaq 55.04 (“)
Russell 2k 61.86 (“)
EU 11.40 -5.39%
EM 54.21(“)


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