Q4 Earnings Update: The Setup Was There Pre-Virus

Yes, the coronavirus is indeed doing a number on the markets, not to mention the economy. But, remember, we were cautious long before the virus outbreak.

Q4 earnings season (all pre-virus) is essentially over, and the results resoundingly confirmed what we’d been seeing — and reporting — in the data for months leading in.

Here’s our proprietary macro index; the second half of ’19-on boxed in red:    click to enlarge…

And, as the above implied, sales and earnings growth among the most economically-sensitive sectors (save for tech) contracted markedly during the 4th quarter of last year:

click to enlarge…


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