For the purposes of this morning’s message let’s think of bear markets as times of war (i.e., of potentially devastating risk) for investors.
*Note: Markets are NEVER easy to gauge, and I’m never comfortable pointing to others’ miscalculations. But, frankly, sounding the all-clear signal right here is dangerously premature in my view.
“One thing the American defense establishment has traditionally understood very well is that countries don’t win wars just by being braver than the other side, or freer, or slightly preferred by God. The winners are usually the guys who get 5% fewer of their planes shot down, or use 5% less fuel, or get 5% more nutrition into their infantry at 95% of the cost. That’s not the stuff war movies are made of, but it’s the stuff wars are made of. And there’s math every step of the way.”
Clearly, huge economic, and, thus, stock market risks remain. So, we’re not the least bit interested in playing the hero role right here; despite the proclamations of the investing generals referenced above…