Macro Update

Just finished our weekly macro analysis. Here’s a recap:

Not much measurable (in terms of score-adjustments) movement among our Macro Index’s components this week; what little there was, however, was on balance negative.

Brick and mortar retail (yellow line) missed expectations, creating a lower high on the graph and moving from green (+1) to yellow (0):  

click each insert below to enlarge…

Job openings literally plummeted for the second straight month, with the rate of change (2nd panel) hitting a level rarely seen outside of recession, taking the component from yellow (0) to red (-1):

The one bright spot was consumer confidence; this morning’s University of Michigan Survey release (middle panel) showed a pickup in optimism that has the indicator threatening its March 2018 high — going from yellow (0) to green (+1):

Overall, our PWA Macro Index declined 1.81 points to -10.71, its 17th straight week below zero:

The rest of the world showed improvement for the second week in a row; with 12 of the 23 countries we score improving, 8 declining and 3 remaining as is (we should expect the coronavirus to do a number on these data in the coming weeks):

As for stock market implications: You certainly wouldn’t expect the U.S. market to be barreling to, and through, all time highs given current general conditions. Unless, that is, there’s a significant amount of liquidity being pumped into the system, which there is; which makes for a riskier and riskier setup if the fundamentals don’t start catching up in a hurry.

Have a great weekend!


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