If Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd is anything, he’s objective. He’s never one to sensationalize or to wed his ego to his thesis. While he and I haven’t always been on the same page over the years, I’ve always viewed him as being thorough and thoughtful in his approach to markets, and, therefore, credible.
Please pardon my cynicism, but I find the above traits to be all too rare among today’s punditry.
Well, as you’ll note when you read his commentary from yesterday, he and I are on precisely the same page when it comes to the present state of the corporate debt market, and the role central banks have assumed in today’s financial markets and in the global economy.
Here’s a snippet, but I strongly recommend you take in his brief note in its entirety:
“Ultimately, we will reach a tipping point when investors will awaken to the rising tide of defaults and downgrades. The timing is hard to predict but this reminds me a lot of the lead-up to the 2001 and 2002 recession.
The prolonged period of tight credit spreads experienced in the late 1990s lulled investors into unwittingly increasing risk at a time they should have been upgrading their portfolios.
This brings to mind the famous observation by economist Hyman Minsky, who stated that stability is inherently destabilizing. That is to say that long periods of relative stability in risk assets causes investors to keep upping the risk during a long period of calm.”
The good news for you readers who happen to be our clients is that our new core allocation is indeed an “upgrade” that better addresses today’s uncertainties…