As we’ve stated herein, we’re paying very close attention to the U.S. employment picture, as it’s our view that a rolling over of the labor market will be the straw that ultimately breaks the back of the economic/stock market bull camel; now on its longest-ever journey.
The thing about the jobs numbers are that they presently look great in number.
Here’s a look at the numbers (through 10/31) for the most important cohort; U.S. small businesses — the employers of 2/3rds of us: click to enlarge…
And here’s for those employing 1-19:
Now, when you eyeball the above graphs back to just before the Great Recession of 2008 (the grey-shaded area), you have to wonder how this data can be of any help whatsoever; being that things looked great right up to the very end.
Ah, but that’s where rate of change analysis comes in!
Absolutely, as you can now see, the jobs data were flashing huge warning signs leading into the last meltdown; you just had to know from what angle to view them.
And they’re not looking so rosy these days either. Hence our presently-defensive posture…