I’ve been mentioning in client meetings and on video commentaries herein that we expect to develop a firmer conviction as to the direction of the next ‘big’ market move over the next few months; our eyes being firmly focused on the labor market.
Should, for example, recent CEO pessimism, and actions, morph into job cuts, we believe that’ll likely be the straw that breaks the bull market’s back; as we attribute the present strength of the economy, and the equity market, to the strength of the consumer.
While the jury is definitely still out, here, from my “Charts That Trouble Me” file are some less-than-encouraging signs: click each insert to enlarge…
Temp hiring (a key forward looking labor indicator) is rolling over (grey shaded area is last recession):
Job openings are in decline (markedly in the economically sensitive sectors):
Weekly jobless claims look like they’re bottoming: