This, from Evercore’s head of China research, is essentially what the market’s rallying on this morning:
“We expect the WH to announce that progress has been made sufficient to put the Oct 15 tariff on ‘indefinite hold,’” said Donald Straszheim, head of China research at Evercore ISI, in a note. “If we are correct on these delays, the tariff war has already hit its peak intensity. That’s a plus. Both sides we believe want to turn down the heat. Tariffs hurt everybody.”
Now, if that’s all we get, while the market may initially love it, once traders look past the ends of their noses they’ll realize that this in no way addresses the damage the trade war has already inflicted (and, with no relief from existing tariffs, continues to inflict) onto the global economy…
And, keep in mind, alas, a potential tariff war with the EU is looming…