Heightened Global Risk – OR – Treading Cautiously Amid The Likelihood Of New Highs

Bloomberg opinion editors just penned a piece titled “The World Economy Is Stumbling Toward Disaster”. And while the title is a bit much, I do sympathize with much of what concerns them.

Here are a few snippets, this will sound familiar to regular readers:   emphasis mine…

“The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth
forecasts yet again. Global output is projected to rise by just
3% this year (down from the 3.3% predicted in the spring) and by
a still-sluggish 3.4% (down from 3.6%) in 2020. Economic
momentum is fading almost everywhere — the IMF calls it a
“synchronized slowdown.””

“The revised outlook is already the
weakest since the crash 10 years ago, and the risks in the
forecast are very much, as economists say, to the downside.

This would be concerning under any circumstances, but the
prospect of recession under current conditions is truly
The hesitant recovery of the past decade has depleted
the conventional tools of macroeconomic policy. In many
countries — not least the U.S. — fiscal stimulus and persistent
budget deficits have boosted ratios of public debt to national

“Next time, governments will be reluctant to lean as
heavily on extra public borrowing to raise demand, rightly or
wrongly fearing lack of fiscal space. Monetary policy is all but
exhausted too, with interest rates either close to their
effective lower bound (as in the U.S.) or slammed down against
it (as in the European Union).”

“With abundant quantitative easing and
super-low interest rates, financial conditions have been kept
loose to support asset prices, press down on yields and
strengthen demand. The measures were necessary, but the result
is outlandish asset valuations and heightened credit risk.”

There’s more, but the above is sufficiently depressing, or, at a minimum, should help clients understand why we’re treading cautiously amid a market that is nonetheless likely to see new all time highs very soon…


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