This Week’s Message: A Walk Through the Data

We just finished our weekly scoring of the PWA Macro Index and would like to show clients what we’re seeing; which in the aggregate illustrates why, for the time being, we remain cautious.

Click each insert to enlarge….


First, here’s the graph of our index itself since inception:




And here’s a look at back-tests (scores plotted along the S&P 500 Index) at key points from 1997 to current. Red shaded areas denote past recessions:





The following includes charts for the lion’s share of the data we formally track each week (believe it or not there’s a ton more that we track “less formally”). 


RETAIL SALES



AUTO SALES



CONSUMER SPENDING



PERSONAL INCOME



HOUSEHOLD NET WORTH



CONSUMER DEBT



CONSUMER DEBT SERVICE RATIO



WEEKLY MORTGAGE APPS



HOUSING STARTS



HOUSING PERMITS



CONSUMER CONFIDENCE



HOMEBUILDER CONFIDENCE



WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS



MONTHLY JOBS DATA



INSTITUTE FOR SUPPLY MANAGEMENT SURVEYS
SERVICESMANUFACTURING



SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM



SMALL BUSINESS HIRING PLANS



SMALL BUSINESS CAPITAL EXPENDITURES PLANS



INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION



DURABLE GOODS ORDERS/DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANSPORTATION



CAPITAL INVESTMENT



CORPORATE FINANCING GAP



COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS



COMMERCIAL PAPER ISSUANCE/COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES



TRUCK TONNAGE



RAIL TRAFFIC



CASS FREIGHT SHIPMENTS AND EXPENDITURES



CHEMICAL ACTIVITY INDEX



CATERPILLAR GLOBAL SALES



GLOBAL PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX



ATLANTA FED GDP NOW



LEADING INDICATORS/COINCIDENT INDICATORS RATIO



CHICAGO FED NAT’L ACTIVITY INDEX



ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX: U.S., EZ, JAPAN, CHINA, EM



GENERAL INFLATION DATA



NY FED UNDERLYING INFLATION INDEX



CAPACITY UTILIZATION (INFLATION IMPLICATIONS)



INFLATION BREAK EVENS



BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX



INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES



COPPER PRICE



BALTIC DRY INDEX



2-YR TREASURY/FED FUNDS SPREAD



TED SPREAD



TREASURY YIELD CURVES



SWAP SPREAD



HIGH YIELD CREDIT SPREAD



CHICAGO FED FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEX



ST. LOUIS FED FINANCIAL STRESS INDEX



KC FED FINANCIAL STRESS INDEX



ML GLOBAL FINANCIAL STRESS INDEX



GLOBAL CDS SPREADS



AAII INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR SENTIMENT (CONTRARIAN INDICATOR)



ADVISER SENTIMENT NOW (CONTRARIAN INDICATOR)



INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSTS’ GLOBAL SENTIMENT



SHORT INTEREST (COMPLACENT)



STOCKS/BONDS COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORTS (STOCKS COMPLACENT)



SKEW INDEX (COMPLACENT)



VIX CURVE (WIDENING 1-2/3 MONTH SPREAD)



PUT/CALL RATIO



SECTOR/SPX RATIOS



SPX/BONDS RATIO



STAPLES/DISCRETIONARY RATIO



MONEY FUND ASSETS



INTEREST RATE SENSITIVITY



VALUATION US/FOREIGN



S&P 500/S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT COMPARISON



S&P 500 ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE



% OF STOCKS TRADING ABOVE 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE



% OF STOCKS TRADING ABOVE 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE



Bottom Line: The consumer’s hanging in there, business data are suspect, inflation is tame, commodities look scary, financial stress in the system is on balance rising, and financial markets are sending very mixed signals. I.e., conditions may not yet be stormy, but clouds are definitely forming…


Have a great weekend!
Marty
















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