This Morning’s Log Entry

This morning China finally announced retaliatory tariffs in response to the latest from the U.S. (the 10% on $300 billion beginning 9/1 and 12/15); of course futures immediately rolled over (but not quite as much [yet] as you might expect).

If Trump sticks to his word, he’ll retaliate (he may not, since I think he’s now on the back foot) by bumping the latest to 25%, which would really do a number on the market.

Of course, for the moment, Powell’s speech (7am this morning) is the primary focus. He’s in a tough spot. Clearly, he doesn’t think it’s time for a Fed bazooka, but the market seems to want one… If it doesn’t get it, it’ll selloff in a big way.

I wonder if Powell — no longer shy about citing tariffs as a major headwind — isn’t making some last-minute modifications to his speech in light of this morning’s China news…


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