Ironically, Ray Dalio, the subject of my post earlier this evening, popped up in the Bloomberg article I just read (and sympathize with) subtitled “The Dark Side of Rate Cuts.”
Just last week, UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said that looser monetary policy could create an asset bubble. Some high-profile investors like Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio and Guggenheim Partners’ Scott Minerd are sounding the alarm, too.
“The message from the Fed is loud and clear,” said Minerd. “Their overriding concern is economic growth and extending the cycle. That’s going to open the door to the Fed possibly cutting rates aggressively this year. I think we’re setting ourselves up for a period of inflating asset prices, which ultimately will not be sustainable.”
Here’s yours truly exactly one week ago:
“The critical question, therefore, is how long will traders – in the face of global uncertainty, high valuations, and weakening general conditions – continue to bid stock prices higher solely on the basis of easy monetary policy? Ironically, while the Fed governors are acting with all the best intentions they are unwittingly inflating the next financial asset bubble;”
And from two weeks before that:
“My concern is that the longer the market takes to deliver the much-needed message, the more macro deterioration the economy will suffer in the meantime. Therefore, if it takes too long, if, let’s say, the Fed continues to prop stock prices up, we could find ourselves ultimately staring down the next recession, and a doozy of a bear market to go with it. That’s not yet my base case, as our own macro assessment –while a very far cry from the high scores of a year ago — still reads expansion.