This Morning’s Log Entry

German factory orders just released for March were abysmal; confirming other data of late that suggests the German economy is in anything but good shape presently.

In contrast to German data this morning, U.S. jobless claims printed the lowest number since 1969. It’s looking like last month’s extremely disappointing employment report was an outlier. We’ll get some clarity from the March report due out tomorrow morning.

Trump is meeting with China’s top negotiator after the bell today, I expect commentary from both sides that talks are going well. Saw a newsflash this morning that said a Trump/Xi summit announcement will be forthcoming.

Brexit news remains fluid; for now I’m staying with my base case that more delays are to come and ultimately we’ll see what will be deemed a “soft Brexit”.

The S&P 500 this morning is holding just above the 2875 line (closed just below it yesterday) that I identified recently as the next level of technical resistance. Our volume indicator has broken out of its downtrend, clearly signaling accumulation, or presently a buy-the-dips mood.

Meaningful movement in stocks from here is most likely to come in response to news around the US/China trade negotiations. As I continue to stress, any evidence that the tit-for-tat tariffs will be eliminated will spark a strong rally, evidence that they’ll remain will not ultimately be welcomed by the market in my view. Of course tomorrow’s jobs number could certainly be a needle-mover, as could Brexit for the time being.


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