This morning’s very strong rally is simply that, thus far, very strong. Volume is above average and breadth (advancers vs decliners) is outstanding!


Yesterday’s Fed meeting was more than any equity market could ask for: Amid an okay macro backdrop, the Fed essentially committed to staying completely out of the market’s way for the remainder of 2019! That — along with an aggressive analyst’ upgrade of Apple shares this morning — has to pretty much explain this morning’s action.


So why was I skeptical coming into the day? Well… smack in the face of my opening sentence, which jibes with my commentaries coming into the week (that there’s likely not much stock for sale between here and 2875 on the S&P 500), I remain so — but of course I also remain open to all possibilities.


My newly-found, short-term, skepticism has to do primarily with yesterday’s revelation that the U.S. intends to force a trade deal with China that leaves the present tariff scheme as is; not to mention the intense session going on, as I type, in Europe around the EU accepting a Teresa May-proposed 3-month Brexit delay. Per reports, the EU is threatening a ‘no’ unless the Brits agree, at least in substance, to the deal it and May hammered out over the past few weeks — a deal that has already been literally pounded twice so far by parliament. While the latter indeed lends itself to a huge upside surprise at any moment (maybe that’s being anticipated this morning by markets as well), it’s not sounding rosy as I type. Although, that said, my base case remains that ultimately a delay happens, followed by a soft Brexit later in the year.


So, again, I’m not all in on today’s rally, but of course I’ll be happy to be dead wrong on this one!