This Evening’s Log Entry


The latest BofA/ML mutual fund manager survey shows a presently high level of bearishness among respondents and cash positions at their highest since 1/09.

A spike in money market fund assets over the past week speaks as well to a general sense of fear existing beneath the latest rally. Which essentially sets the stage for a continued move higher (with the attendant stretches of consolidation) should headlines around trade and the Federal budget remain positive.

Other sentiment indicators, however, aren’t quite as supportive: Individual investor bullishness spiked 8 points to 39.9% (slightly above average). Advisor sentiment rose 2.8 points to 48.6%. While neither reading is scary bullish, they denote less fear among both cohorts.

Today’s rally (on positive trade and budget headlines) was met with strong breadth, as 400 of the S&P 500 members finished higher on the day, while the index closed above its 200-day moving average.

A sustained move above the 200-dma, then 2800 on the S&P, could see the market get an additional boost as the shorts who are likely sitting at and just above those levels are forced to cover.

While general conditions are on balance supportive of higher-trending stock prices, right now it’s all about the headlines – here and abroad.


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