In our 2018 year-end letter’s section on the dollar I pointed to low expectations for the Eurozone economy leading to a softer European Central Bank, and how that, along with low relative valuations for Eurozone equities and our view that recession risk for now remains low, makes for a bullish setup for the region’s stocks, as well a bearish one for the U.S. dollar (a bullish scenario for equities the world over).
Bloomberg’s Heather Burke (in the last sentence below) essentially echoed our view this morning:
“EU growth outlooks and equity allocations are the lowest in 7 years, according to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch European fund managers survey. Banana peels from trade to slowing economic growth to Brexit remain. However, Draghi’s comments that there’s no euro-area recession ahead and that monetary support is still needed signal the central bank has the markets’ back.”