While the headlines this morning suggest that today’s rout is all about global growth fears, there can be little doubt that the legal issues facing President Trump are yet another contributor to market volatility.
The question is, will it turn into something more pernicious? Of course time will tell. I do believe that we should distinguish the President Trump of 2018, from the one of 2017.
As does famed economist Ed Yardeni:
“Trump is probably the most bullish and bearish president we’ve ever had” in terms of tax reform (on the bullish end) and uncertain trade policy (on the bearish end)“
At a minimum, a return to his 2017 self, and, therefore, the market conditions that go with it, would, as I suggested earlier today, be hugely in the President’s political best interest.
As for what savvy investors (vs short-term traders) ultimately care about, Tom Essaye captures it nicely:
“To be sure, it’s not that everyone sees an imminent threat to markets should the investigations continue. According to Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” market newsletter, markets only care about policy, so unless the proceedings affect tax or trade legislation, fallout should be contained.””