There’s clearly concern factored into Japan’s latest GDP number, yet there’s optimism in the expectations captured by the surveys. Bespoke’s assessment below speaks directly to my view of the potential of, and the risks to, the global economy going forward: emphasis mine…
“….in Asia overnight, Q3 GDP in Japan came in weaker than expected, falling 2.5% annualized
versus expectations for a drop of 2%. That drop in growth was the largest in more than four years and
was driven by the largest drop in business spending in over nine years. While this datapoint seems to
reinforce the theme of an increasingly slowing global economy, expectations for Q4 are positive, and
the Japan Economy Watchers Expectations survey rose to its best level since February this month, so
conditions should improve going forward. The big wildcard, obviously, is what happens with the trade
war between the US and China. As long as global markets have to contend with that, a fog of uncertainty will continue to envelop the global macro landscape.”