As I type, Dow futures are, once again, pointing to a 300+ point jump at the open. While the Charlie Brown risk is still huge, there is — at this very early point in the trading day — a hint that the headline support may be a bit better in the near-term.

We pointed out that the Huawei CFO arrest (at the U.S.’s behest) in Canada was a markedly unfriendly market event. The President’s last evening comment that he’ll step in if it’ll help the trade talks suggests strongly that he is indeed eager to “make a deal.” Which, as you now have to be convinced, would in all likelihood be an exceedingly friendly market event.


My momentary, and very cautious, optimism aside, the current trade situation is the definition of fluid, plus, the Brexit situation remains an albeit lesser source of volatility as well. Overnight we saw global equity futures get a bit whipsawed on the announcement that the British parliament will be holding a no-confidence vote on Theresa May this afternoon. Supposedly, odds say she’ll survive it. Which has the pound and UK stocks rising this morning. Expect the opposite, not just for UK markets, overnight if she loses.


To repeat (from yesterday):

Whether or not this morning’s rally sticks remains to be seen. It certainly may, but don’t be shocked if it doesn’t. The trade topic thus far has been too akin to Lucy with the football:

For a look beyond the noise, here again is last weekend’s video (feel free to jump to the 10 minute market if you’d like to skip the technicals and get to general conditions):

Once playing, click the icon in the lower right corner for full screen. Focus should occur after a few seconds; if not, click the wheel to the left of the YouTube icon to adjust: 

P.S. This will be our only blog post during the trading day today. I’ll be back either tonight or tomorrow morning.