Notes from the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey released this morning speak volumes about why we said at the beginning of the year (and have stressed repeatedly since) that protectionism is the looming threat that could put our bullish thesis to the test:
“…steel and
aluminum tariffs are a drag”,
“Tariffs are bad. Tariff waivers
for preferred companies,
a.k.a. picking winners, is also
bad.”, “We are not yet sure if this slowdown is being caused by the China tariffs”, “The current U.S.
trade policies are causing customers to rethink longer-term purchases”, “Trade issues create a level
of uncertainty for us”, “Constant conflicting information from D.C. regarding tariffs, etc., has confused
our planning process dramatically.”, “We would like to see improvements in economic relations
with China and Russia.”
This week’s G20 summit in Argentina — where U.S. and Chinese leaders are scheduled to meet — is near-term huge!