As clients and regular readers know, our assessment of conditions instructs that — barring a protracted trade war — the present economic expansion has legs.
The Economist agrees: emphasis mine…
Good job: America’s labour market
Jobs are plentiful, as today’s figures on non-farm payrolls from the Bureau of Labour Statistics should confirm. ADP, a company that publishes its own estimates a couple of days before the BLS posts official numbers, tends to track the official numbers reasonably well. On October 31st it estimated an increase of 227,000 jobs, though some of that strength may be because last year’s employment was depressed by hurricanes. The trillion-dollar question is how long these good times can last. The ratio of prime-age employment to population was 79.3% in September, still a full percentage point below the level seen in 2009. That suggests there is still scope for a hotter economy to draw more people into the workforce. And although it looks likely that average hourly earnings growth will top 3% for the first time since 2009, that is not strong enough to think that this recovery is anywhere near its last gasps.