Stocks Are Beginning to Look Cheap

Here’s our forward (12-month estimated) price-earnings chart as of October 1st:

20+ is red (getting up there relative to projected earnings)
17-19.99 is yellow (starting to get up there)
15-16.99 is light green (attractively valued)
Below 15 is dark green (cheap)

Here’s today’s:

What this suggests is that earnings projections among large cap U.S. stocks (SPX) have been holding up as stock prices have been tanking. Which jibes with our view of present macro conditions.

In terms of sectors, financials and commodity stocks (Nat Res) remain too cheap, home builders are crazy cheap, many economically defensive stocks (staples and utilities) are getting a little relatively pricey while the remaining cyclical sectors, save for energy, consumer discretionary and REITs, look like solid buys/holds (from a purely valuation standpoint).

As for foreign equities, save for India’s, they are hitting record cheapness relative to the U.S.. Barring a global recession in the foreseeable future, we won’t be surprised if our foreign equity allocation outperforms U.S. in 2019, like it did in 2017. 

All of the above said, of course there’s more to the game than simply valuation.


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