Leading Indicators Paint a Presently Nice Picture

by Marty Mazorra CFP®, ChFC® Founder & Co-Chief Investment Officer

The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators is featured in our PWA [Macro] Index. Bloomberg explains why:

“Trying to figure out when the next U.S. recession may strike? There’s one indicator that has a virtually flawless track record: the year-on-year change in the Conference Board Leading Index. Every recession since 1970 has come with a decline in this composite reading of ten economic and market measures, and there’s been only one instance (indeed one month!) when it gave a false signal of impending economic contraction, writes Bloomberg Macro Man Cameron Crise.”


Here are the highlights from today’s release:

Leading Indicators 

Released On 9/20/2018 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2018
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Leading Indicators – M/M change 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.5 % 0.3 % to 0.6 % 0.4 %

Highlights
Led by a surge in ISM manufacturing orders, the index of leading economic indicators posted a
solid 0.4 percent advance in August. The report’s credit measure and interest-rate measure were
both strong contributors as were consumer expectations and stock prices. Building permits were
a prominent weakness to underscore the flat results of this morning’s existing home sales report.
But housing aside, the LEI is pointing to a healthy finish for the 2018 economy.
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